1. Here’s a little more information on the proposes medical office building at 2141 Dryden Road. Site Plan here, planning department memo here. A local doctor operating as “Slaterville Springs Real Estate Company, LLC” is planning a 3,676 SF pre-fabricated building on the site. The building would be built using a Superior Wall precast concrete foundation (Superior Walls are commonly seen with modular builds), and built into the hillside – one story from the front, two from the back. The doctor’s office would occupy the upper level, and the lower level is spec space. The plans include a roof-mounted solar system, electric heat pumps, and an electric vehicle charging station in one of the three proposed parking areas. 48 parking spaces are indicated, four of which are ADA compliant. A covered bicycle rack and dumpster enclosure are also provided.
Having all these green features at a semi-rural site with gobs of parking (the Institute for Traffic Engineers’ parking standards for medical offices is about 3.5 per 1,000 SF, or 13 in this case) is liking having a diet coke with your Big Mac. A project can be “green”, but much of its green impacts are mitigated if it encourages fossil fuel use with increased vehicle traffic. It would benefit the town to plan and zone for developments like this closer to villages and hamlets.
The site also includes landscaping, some limited signage, lighting and stormwater features. The town planning department’s opinion is that the project is not substantial enough to merit full site plan review. Spec Consulting of Groton is doing the project design.
2. The Black Diamond Trail will receive a major addition after New York State announced funding for a bridge over the Cayuga Lake flood control channel earlier this week. The $1.2 million award from the state will pay for the construction of a new pedestrian bridge for the trail, which will span the inlet from the current trail segment along Floral Avenue, to the intersection of Cherry Street and Cecil Malone Drive. This would provide greater connectivity for West Hill residents to the businesses along the waterfront and the big box corridor, giving them to option to walk/bike through here instead of going up to West State Street. In an interview with the Journal’s Tom Pudney, city transportation engineer Tim Logue notes that design work, public hearings and municipal approvals for the bridge will take another 18 months, so construction won’t be until 2021.
3. Now for a look at Dryden’s Mill Creek subdivision. Site plan application here, proposed covenants here, site plans here. This is the 908-acre subdivision of land west of Freeville into forty home lots. It looks like the Lucente family (as RPL Properties, for the late Rocco P. Lucente) is working with surveyor Alan Lord to plat the lots. The 40 lots range in size from just over 5 acres, to 60 acres. 23 acres on the eastern edge of the parcel would be deeded over to the town for land conservation.
Even as subdivisions go, this is a very questionable design because it’s not really following state guidelines for conservation subdivisions, which cluster houses near roads on smaller lots so as to preserve natural space. These lots aren’t designed for that, which really opens up the possibility of large-scale natural space degradation or destruction. Given that the zoning here is a conservation district, it meets the word of the law, but not the sentiment.
4. Courtesy of the County Clerk’s office, we now know what the amount of the construction loan was for the latest phase of the Village Solars. 24-unit Building “K” (113 Village Circle) and 24-unit Building “L” (40 Village Place) received a $5.6 million loan from Elmira Savings Bank, which is mildly interesting in that the previous building loans were from Tompkins Trust. Note that the buildings are switched around from the site plan above, so that middle building is “K” and the building to the east is “L”. Both buildings are expected to be completed by the end of September 2019. I
n February, my last visit, Building “K” was substantially finished from the outside, while Building “L” was just a foundation pad. However, the Lucentes in-house construction team have been building these for years and have the process down pat, so if they’re framing by now, they could certainly have “L” finished by the end of September.
5. The recent article regarding the U.S. Census Bureau estimates created quite a stir and a number of strong and/or concerned emails. Before anyone gets hung up on the numbers,realize that the census is all about estimating from an annual survey of about 2.1 million households nationwide, out of a little over 126 million. They’re reasonably comfortable with national figures, a little less so with states, and generally, they just hope to be close with counties, especially medium-sized one like Tompkins who are hard to sample but can still vary by several hundreds of people from year to year.
Now consider the statistics mentioned in the article. From 2010 to 2017, the area added 2,412 housing units, and from 2010 to 2018 it added about 6,000 jobs (1.4% annual growth). The colleges add 800 or so students in total. All signs point to steady, modest growth.
Here’s an exercise. Let’s take those 2,412 housing units. 964 single-family homes, and 1,448 multi-family units. The average household size is 2.5 persons/home, and 2.2/persons per multifamily unit. So a gross estimate for the number of occupants in new housing is (964 * 2.5) + (1,448 * 2.2), or 5,596 people.
Now for a couple of adjustments. Household sizes are known to be getting smaller. Nationally, from 2010 to 2018, the change was 2.59 to 2.53, so applying that same percent decrease to the single-family figure and the multi-family figure reduces the gross gain to 5,466 people. Also, let’s assume that not every housing unit permitted was built. The vast majority are, but not all. Let’s say 98% were. That reduces the figure to 5,356.
Secondly, some new housing replaces older housing. Those stats aren’t so readily available. But I track them here. In this case, the number I have on file is that of projects recently completed or proposed, net gain is 90.6% of the gross gain. That number is going to be a bit low because I don’t track single-family home construction, which typically happens on vacant lots. Still, assuming it’s otherwise an acceptable estimation, then (5,356 * .906) = 4,853 people.
Now, let’s account for vacancy. Overall, Tompkins County is ticking upward, though still below a healthy market rate / too tight in the urban areas. It was higher in 2010, lower in the middle of decade, and creeping up now as new construction is completed and occupied. Let’s say (rather optimistically or pessimistically, depending your view) there’s a one percent increase since 2010,. Tompkins had 43.453 housing units as of 2017. So with a +1% vacancy since 2010, that’s 434.5, of which 52.7% are homes if we break it up perfectly, but since rentals have a slightly higher vacancy rate in general, let’s say 50-50. So ((217.25 * 2.5) + (217.25 * 2.2) ) * (2.53/2.59) = 997 people.
Let’s do the math. 4,853 people – 997 people = 3,856 people. Add that to 101,564 reported in 2010, and you get 105,420 residents in 2017. The Census’s 2017 estimate for Tompkins County was 104,871. Extrapolate it out a bit, and assuming Tompkins continues to add at about 551 people/year, and 2020 will clock in around 107,073 people. 5.4% growth. A hair below national average, but well above most of upstate New York and the Northeast.
So with that exercise in mind, don’t worry about the Census estimates. They will be what they will be, whether 2,000 people magically disappear or not. They’re not looking to be great, they just hope to be kinda accurate until the next census rolls out in 2020.
Ithacating in Cornell Heights 